IBM和HP的争夺之战

　从表面上看，惠普(HP)和IBM有许多共同之处。两家公司都鼎鼎大名，都拥有大量塑造现代高新科技格局的宝贵财富。两家公司都在同时与诸多大型企业和小公司合作，帮助他们解决技术问题。两家公司还在争夺云计算、海量数据等具有大好增长前景的新兴市场。

　　On the face of it, Hewlett-Packard and IBM have a lot in common. Both are storied brands with rich legacies that shaped high-tech. Both are working with companies large and small to help manage their technology. Both are angling for a piece of the markets -- like cloud computing and big data -- that promise years of growth.

　　惠普和IBM都在最近更换了掌门：梅格•惠特曼于一年前接过惠普首席执行官的权杖，而维吉尼亚•罗曼提在今年1月接手IBM。两家公司的成功愿景相差无几，不过，他们也都面临着相似的挑战：萎靡不振的全球经济形势和不断涌现的颠覆性新技术。

　　And both have new chief executive officers: Meg Whitman moved into HP's (HPQ) CEO office a year ago; Virginia Rometty took the reins at IBM (IBM) in January. Both companies share a similar vision for success. And both face similar challenges to get there, like a sluggish global economy and the rise of disruptive new technologies.

　　尽管历史底蕴非常相似，但惠普和IBM的发展道路大不一样。惠普现在仍处于为期多年的复苏转型中，而IBM却在实施多年前就已制定好的长远规划。两家公司的发展道路在很大程度上都不是其现任首席执行官制定的。为什么?首先，他们对硬件和软件在未来IT发展中的定位不同;其次，他们的企业并购策略也不一样。

　　Despite this bedrock sameness, HP and IBM are pushing forward on different paths. HP is in the midst of a multi-year turnaround, while IBM is building on a long-term plan outlined years ago. Neither company's path was charted in large part by its current leader. Why? First, their views on the role of hardware versus software in the future of IT; and second, their approach to mergers and acquisitions.

　　近十年来，IBM的管理层非常稳定，而且一直着眼于长远目标。在历史上，IBM以大型机制造商而著称;而现在，它是IT咨询和软件服务的标志性厂商。2004年，IBM以17.5亿美元将PC业务部出售给联想(Lenovo)，从而开始摆脱对硬件制造的依赖。

　　IBM's last decade has been marked by steady leadership pursuing a long-term course. To move forward from its recent history as a maker of big computers, the company famously pushed into IT-consulting services and software, taking a step away from hardware in 2004 by selling the PC division to Lenovo for $1.75 billion.

　　和 IBM一样，惠普早在多年前就已经意识到，作为科技巨头，未来的发展不仅仅在于向企业出售大型机，更重要的是参与管理客户日益复杂的硬件设备和种类繁多的技术。但与IBM不同，惠普坚信硬件在技术外包业务中仍将继续扮演关键角色。2002年，惠普投入重金，以250亿美元收购了康柏(Compaq)。

　　Like IBM, HP saw years ago that the future of big tech was not in selling big computers to companies, but in taking on the increasingly complex tasks of managing them and all the antecedent technologies. But unlike IBM, HP maintained that hardware would continue to play a key role in its tech outsourcing business -- a bet the company made when it spent $25 billion for Compaq in 2002.

　　收购康柏后，惠普持续增长，营收从2002年的570亿美元增长至去年的1,270亿美元。相比之下，IBM的增速相对较慢——从2002年的810亿美元营收增加至去年的1,070亿美元。

　　After Compaq, HP continued to grow. It went from a company that made $57 billion in revenue in 2002 to one that made $127 billion last year. By contrast, IBM grew relatively slowly -- from $81 billion in revenue in 2002 to $107 billion last year.

　　过去十年，惠普通过激进的收购策略，在营收增长上一举超过了IBM。马克•赫德在2006到2010年执掌惠普的5年时间里，惠普投入巨资收购了多家大型科技企业。例如EDS(139亿美元)、3Com(27亿美元)、Palm(12亿美元)和3Par(24亿美元)。李艾科接替赫德后，惠普又耗资16亿和 110亿美元，分别收购了ArcSight和Autonomy两家软件企业。

　　Over the past decade, HP has trumped IBM in revenue growth through its aggressive acquisitions. Under Mark Hurd's tenure, between 2006 and 2010, HP spent big on tech brand names like EDS ($13.9 billion), 3Com ($2.7 billion), Palm ($1.2 billion) and 3Par ($2.4 billion). Under Hurd's ill-starred successor Léo Apotheker, HP spent $1.6 billion on ArcSight and $11 billion on Autonomy, two software companies.

　　相比之下，虽然IBM在出售PC业务后也进行了多起收购，但只有一次金额超过20亿美元，即2008年以50亿美元收购商业软件提供商Cognos。相反，IBM在此期间进行了多起10亿美元级别的收购：Internet Security Systems(16亿美元)、数据分析公司Netezza(17亿美元)、Sterling Commerce(14亿美元)等。

　　IBM, by contrast, has made many mergers and acquisitions since spinning off its PC division, but only once in that tine has it spent more than $2 billion -- for business software maker Cognos for $5 billion in 2008. Instead, it's made a handful of billion dollar deals in that time span: Internet Security Systems ($1.6 billion), data analytics firm Netezza ($1.7 billion), Sterling Commerce ($1.4 billion), and others.

　　还有一个不同之处。在刘易斯•普拉特1999年辞去惠普首席执行官后，惠普走马观花似地迎来了7位首席执行官，其中包括两位临时的。而IBM自1971年小托马斯•沃森退休后到现在，一共只有7位首席执行官。

　　But there is another aspect to the story. Ever since Lewis Platt stepped down as HP's CEO in 1999, the company has gone through seven different leaders, including two interim CEOs. That's as many CEOs as IBM has seen since Thomas Watson, Jr., retired from IBM in 1971.

　　首席执行官的更替速度影响重大：在IBM实施辉煌的五年计划时，惠普首席执行官从硬件高管菲奥莉娜、赫德转到软件高管李艾科，再到现在的电子商务高手惠特曼。频繁的人事变动——或者说缺乏稳定的高管，对两家公司的策略产生了巨大影响。

　　The pace of CEO turnover can be crucial: While IBM has had the luxury of laying out five-year plans, HP has shifted from hardware execs Fiorina and Hurd to software exec Apotheker to e-commerce veteran Whitman. And those transitions -- or lack thereof -- have had a big impact on the two companies' strategies.

　　换句话说，从惠普过去10年的并购案例来看，这家科技巨头已形成在硬件和软件两方面齐头并进的战略，它显然将未来同时押宝在两大业务上。相比之下，IBM则更看好软件，认为它比单纯的物理硬件更为重要。

　　In other words, HP's M&A moves in the past decade chronicle the strategy of a tech giant pushing into hardware and software alike, a clear bet on a future that would rely on both. IBM, by contrast, saw its future more in the zeros and ones of software than the physical machinery of hardware.

　　惠普在硬件上投入重注，认为其最终将获得成功。IBM则将赌注压在已被证明比硬件投入要少的软件上，同时采取广泛撒网的策略。但这并不意味着IBM不愿进行并购：该公司表示，从现在到2015年，将拿出200亿美元进行收购，超过过去10年并购额的总和。

　　HP paid big for its bets on hardware, wagering it would win out in the end. IBM, meanwhile, made lots of smaller bets on software, which has proven to be a cheaper business to start-up than hardware. That doesn't mean IBM won't pay out for acquisitions: The company has indicated it will spend $20 billion on deals through 2015 -- more than it has spent in the last 10 years.

　　这意味着，IBM认为它的大多数投资应该放在刚崭露头角、具有发展潜力的软件公司上。惠普当然也会寻找好的软件公司进行投资，不过，它只是希望平衡一下过去几年对硬件公司的投资额。这是纯软件和软硬结合两大策略的争议之处。

　　What it means is IBM believes its big investments will be in software companies that are only starting to show their stuff. HP, of course, will also be looking for good software investments, but it wants to counterbalance them against some of the hardware companies that it bought over the past several years. It's a debate between pure software versus a mix of software and hardware.

　　惠普的赌注充满风险，因为科技界越来越由软件驱动。硬件一直是、而且永远是技术领域的重要组成部分，不过在个人电脑、服务器、交换机和路由器等诸多领域，软件提高了生产效率、并不断推动创新。硬件虽然也在不断进步，但越来越被视为利润稀薄的日用品。

　　HP's bet is risky because the world of tech is more and more driven by software. Hardware is and will always be an important component of tech, but in many areas -- personal computers, servers, switches and routers -- software is driving efficiencies and innovation. Hardware, while ever improving, is increasingly seen as more of a commodity business that delivers low margins.

　　而软件长期以来一直是利润丰厚的业务。虽然惠普经过多年并购，在营收增幅上已超越IBM，但IBM的利润更丰厚。去年，IBM的运营利润达到27%而惠普只有8%。

　　Software, of course, has long been a high-margin business. Even though HP, through its years of acquisitions, has seen its revenue grow faster than IBM's, it is IBM that has enjoyed the bigger profits. Last year, IBM's operating profit was 27% of its revenue, versus an 8% margin for HP.

　　这就是IBM和惠普为何境况不同。两家公司新任首席执行官面临的最大难题是，如何确立公司未来的发展方向?管理层应该如何为公司出谋划策?

　　That's where IBM and HP stand today. The bigger question for their new CEO's is, where will these companies go? Where can their leaders take them?

　　罗曼提表示，将继续执行前任制定的战略，但愿意在必要时更大胆一些。惠特曼则坦承惠普正面临着挑战，但自己能迎难而上。不久前，惠特曼否决了投资者要求分拆惠普PC业务的请求。上周，她再次重申，惠普将进军不断增长的智能手机市场。

　　Rometty has indicated she will build on the strategies set down by her predecessors, although she is willing to put a bold stamp on the company if that's what it needs. Whitman has been frank about the challenges facing HP, yet willing to make tough calls on its future. Whitman resisted demands from investors to spin-off HP's PC business. And this week, she reiterated her desire to make the company a player in the growing market for smartphones.

　　无论全球经济何时转暖，两家公司都有发展空间。IBM告诉企业，在他们向新科技时代进军的道路上，IBM能提供咨询、基础设施和软件专业技术。惠普也号称能提供这些服务，但它还有解决方案——从咨询和应用软件到个人电脑和智能手机，几乎包罗万象，因此，惠普的服务似乎更为全面。两家公司还要与甲骨文(Oracle)和戴尔(Dell)等公司展开激烈竞争。

　　There is room for both companies to thrive, whenever the global economy finally improves. IBM will tell companies it's got the consulting, infrastructure and software expertise they need to push into the brave new era of tech. HP will say it offers the same, but it has the soup-to-nuts solution -- from consultants to apps to PCs and smartphones -- that's even more comprehensive. Both will battle other giants in the space, like Oracle (ORCL) and Dell (DELL).

　　两家公司前景如何?金融市场已经给出了不同答案。IBM股票今年上涨了13%。惠普下跌了29%。IBM市值为2,360亿美元，惠普市值仅为360亿美元，不到IBM的1/6。

　　Will both thrive? The financial markets measure a discrepancy. IBM is up 13% so far this year. HP is down 29%. IBM has a market cap of $236 billion. HP is valued at $36 billion, or less than a sixth of its rival's value.

　　不过，在考虑这些数据之前，我们还应该看看被许多人认为能决定科技企业未来的一项数据。过年三年，IBM的研发投入为180亿美元，为同期营收额的 6.0%。惠普的投入只有90亿美元，占营收比重为2.5%。着眼未来意味着可能会减少并购而增加研发费用。现在，两家公司都在为光明的未来作准备，战略应该是非常值得关注的因素。

　　But before you consider any of those statistics, consider the single metric that many people believe says more about a tech giant's future than anything. IBM has spent $18 billion in research and development over the last three years, or 6.0% of its revenue in that period. HP has spent $9 billion in the same period, or 2.5% of its revenue. To plan for the future may mean spending less on high-ticket acquisitions and more on research and development. As both companies steer toward a brighter tomorrow, that strategy seems one well worth betting on.